An El Nino event is likely to happen by the end of the year. The probability of such a hot current now reach 70%, announced Monday in Geneva the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
“Based on model predictions and expert interpretations, it is approximately 70% likely that the observed conditions will reach the stage of a low-intensity El Niño episode in the last quarter of 2018 and the northern winter of 2018- 2019,” the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), a UN agency based in Geneva, said in a statement.
“In other words, this scenario is twice as likely as that of a persistence of neutral conditions,” the experts said. “This warming could (…) happen very quickly, between September and November already, although the forecasts in question are uncertain,” added the WMO.
Its intensity is uncertain but it should not be very high, the organization added. In total, sea surface temperatures, which have been rising in recent weeks, are expected to show positive anomalies between 0.6 and 1.2 ° C in the east-central Pacific from November to next January.
El Nino causes drought in some areas and heavy rains in others. Until the end of winter 2018/2019, the arrival of a La Nina episode is almost excluded.
The year “started with a low intensity La Niña episode,” said WMO Secretary General Petteri Taalas. “But its cooling effect was not enough to reduce the global warming situation,” he added. This year 2018 “should be one of the hottest” ever, “said Taalas.
The WMO emphasizes that the El Niño phenomenon is not the only factor that determines global climate patterns. Furthermore, according to the experts, there is not necessarily a direct correlation between the intensity of a Nino episode and the magnitude of its impact.